Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
